River Rapids and Foresight

Consider this analogy, as you row a boat on a calm river enjoying the scenery mirrored against water, you can easily forget the nature of a river or fail to recognize the danger of a rapid around the next bend. Are you prepared for it when you hit the rapid? Do you know if it is a class one rapid or a class five? Just as river rapids have stages of difficulty and danger, failing to recognize the difficulties and dangers of action without foresight can bring business into turbulence and chaos it is ill prepared to survive. Having no intention to rehash news the media presents every night, the intend of this short piece simply suggests business has opportunities to see future turbulence and take aggressive steps to avoid the center of the rapids where turbulence is worst.

The current economic blight is an example of business failing to anticipate future. Note, the word future is not preceded with the indefinite article “a” or definite article “the” as writers generally insert. Moreover, future is not an equal and opposite reaction to some applied force as the science of physic teaches. Future is the next second in time that a clock ticks toward and future is a point years and generations ahead.

Therefore, why is business surprised when the river becomes turbulent? Each business affected by the current economic downturn surely has a vision, a statement of values, and some mission statement encompassing vision and values. Surely, business has some kind of strategic plan for operations. Is there a missing element, were businesses foresightful?

Foresight is not having a vision, it is being visionary. Foresight views potential futures on the near horizon and over the horizon. Foresight recognizes that horizon changes can occur slowly as a meandering river flowing between its banks. Foresight also images the river becoming a raging rapid on the horizon. The visionary aspect of foresight allows business to establish multiple contingencies by asking right questions of stakeholders. Asking right questions of its stakeholders, invites people to think strategically. As people begin thinking strategically, they ask more right, foresightful questions. As business begins answering the right questions, it begins seeing multiple answers to each question. The multiplicity of answers resembles the multiplicity of future horizons.

Even as the boat rower, or business, survives the rapids reaching the river mouth, the horizon changed again. Although the rapids are past and the river is smooth and reflective, business cannot remain reflective. The river at its mouth, its delta, poses new challenges. Which rivulet provides smooth rowing into open water, which will snag the bottom on a sand bar?

The person rowing a boat on a calm river can avoid rapids by staying on the calm water, its safe there. Business can stay on the calm water as well, its safe there. However, business exists to serve its constituents, grow its product line, innovate, and change. Growing business, innovating and changing means taking the rapids, taking risks. However, it does not mean taking the rapids without foresight.

Business leader, you have maneuvered the rapids, navigated the delta, and entered the open water. There is a storm brewing, now what!